Dialogue Wang Xiaolu Yang Yao reform in Russia more successful than the Chinese do

 【Series of interviews with three decades of reform and opening one of the】
dialogue Wang Xiaolu Yang Yao: Russia's reform more successful than the Chinese do?
Of: spare the Southern Weekend reporter from Beijing 2008-07-10 08:38: 53
Source: Southern Weekend article】 【Southern Weekend website:
Wang Xiaolu: Chinese Economic Reform Research Foundation National Economy
Yao Yang, deputy director of the Institute: Center for Economic Research, Peking University, deputy director of
which one is better at a glance
10 years of growth is temporary, 20 years is a kind of inertia, said China is not successful for 30 years, despite the fact that a little bit. an increase of 30 years, basically completed the reform of the economy, this now Russia is certainly a huge achievement than ..
assume that Russia would not go bad just changed for the better, assuming that the same good is only worse in China, said that Russia's reforms to China's reform and better than that.
SW: comparing China and Russia different transition path, the Western view is that a greater impact than the choice of Russia, China, how do you see?
Wang Xiaolu: reform is successful, the majority of the people depends on the evaluation and personal experience. Looking at the results from the current Both the pros and cons of reform at a glance. China's reform, people generally benefit is the fact that Russia in the 1990s, regardless of the level of GDP or the lives of ordinary people have dropped significantly, GDP fell almost half in 1990. Putin came to power situation in the recovery, but so far have not returned to the best pre-reform levels. can not let people in general benefit from the reform, how can it be a good reform?
SW: Western point of view, it is this generation of Russian choice, they have to pay the cost, and the future of China would also like to pay the costs, and costs may be too great to imagine.
Wang Xiaolu: China's reform did not change the end. political system has not yet commenced, and some very important issues unresolved. will of course continue to pay the cost of reform. But why say that China is going to pay the cost of Russia's future earnings are obtained? This is no factual basis for the subjective imagination. We have seen 30 years see progress in China. Russian reforms almost 20 years we have seen, saw the disaster caused by shock therapy. It caused great social divide, a small number of oligopolistic resources and interference in domestic affairs, and will let the public continue to pay the cost. in just people are not formally voted to measure is not enough.
Yao Yang: the need to ask is, if the future better than China, Russia, and how better than China, because what better than China?
1990 mid- I just came back with the small Lu also had a discussion, I said not too early to judge what kind of transition more successful. But over a decade now, I think we can judge by. the Chinese have gone through 30 years, 10 years growth may be temporary (many Latin American countries experienced 10 years of growth), may be an inertia of 20 years, 30 years, said China is not successful, despite the fact that I feel a little bit.
growth for 30 years, our transformation basically passed, and I think basically completed the reform of the economy, there may be some small, technical things that need improvement, but the larger economic framework we have laid down, and this is certainly more than with Russia, a huge success. First said that economic reforms, we will certainly go better than them, we do not need some sacrifice, no sacrifice we have growth, he sacrificed a generation, the decline in life expectancy, now only 56 years old, 16 years lower than ours.
We are going up, him go down, have to say that Russia is successful, we do not succeed, apparently ignoring the fact a statement.
SW: not to deny the achievements of China now, but said at this stage can not conclude.
Yao Yang: China as static, China is no longer changed?
Wang Xiaolu: Assuming Russia does not change the bad place where only the change for the better, and assume that the Chinese can no longer good place changed, only change to the bad place. based on a series of unrealistic assumptions in order to reform the Russian reform, better conclusions than the Chinese.
China and Russia have no other choice before the Soviet Union
Gorbachev's political reforms and is inseparable from the Soviet Union, is the result of his lack of political ability. And the Yeltsin era reforms make great explosion is entirely political needs. Chubais to his ideas, said the political basis of the original system should crushed, the original system, which benefit the economy cut off from, which is a wholly political considerations, not economic considerations.
Chinese leaders at that time chose to cross the river by feeling the stones , dual parallel, incremental reform. Looking back, it was able to pipe a little more tightly, to prevent profiteering so openly Yuli? can not do a little more transparent, more orderly point? perfectly! but we can not deny the two-track system effectiveness.
ready history tells us, the world's successful model already exists a market economy, this thing is actually a practical thing, not the theory looks better on the choice of a market economy so.
South Weekend: Another important issue is the discussion of the initial conditions of reform. Sachs, Wing Thye Woo and Yang in their article on the transition and constitutional in that, because the pre-reform level of industrialization in China is not high, so that we can be progressive incremental reform, while Russia's highly industrialized so that they can only choose a radical shock therapy, there was no alternative.
Yang Yao: Yingyi Qian, Xu Chenggang in the United States, article, a similar conclusion. They believe that the Soviet Union's planned economy was very successful and basically realized the strip of economic management, while China's planned economy is not high, or the block management. strip the power of management is relatively large, so from The most effective way, China is bound to be gradual reform, and the Soviet Union is bound to be a comprehensive reform of the radical.
Wang Xiaolu: This analysis emphasizes the pre-reform China and the difference between the former Soviet Union, there is some truth. but can not accordingly the former Soviet Union launched the conclusion that there can be only shock therapy can take this road? I do not think so.
SW: Gorbachev was trying to learn Chinese, take the gradual route, but did not go to school.
Sachs Their explanation is that this is determined by initial conditions. because the Soviet industrial output in the high proportion of GDP, the overall economy is relatively high profit margins, a higher proportion of a smaller industrial sector can afford to subsidize the agricultural sector, their collective income of the farmers with farm workers or less. and agriculture in GDP in 1978 accounted for more than 60% of the income of farmers is far below the city's workers, making reform more than the private sector can be a farmer, than workers wage levels in a large number of staff employed to ensure that these private companies can survive, can grow, compete on the state-owned enterprises, which makes incremental reform can succeed. The Soviet Union is not going to change, the last only with shock therapy. < br> Wang Xiaolu: I do not support this view, the initial conditions is indeed not the same as China and the Soviet Union, Soviet Union, China was higher than the level of industrialization and agricultural sector, not so many people, China's agricultural sector is still a large population, low starting point, China per capita income, GDP is lower, these are the initial conditions.
Soviet industry is highly specialized, roads management, such a system into a competitive system to a relatively more difficult to disrupt the re- combination, it is more painful. The Chinese departments and regions, the role of management is relatively heavy, relatively easy regional and regions to compete with smaller degree of change up the pain, which I think is right. but only that China is such an initial condition, the initial stage of reform to benefit more significantly, it may be said that reform is more likely that, can not say that China can only go this way and only that way the Soviet Union.
he has his conditions, but the Soviet Union's reform is not on the actual conditions in accordance with the reform measures taken, is another matter. even if he has this series of conditions, roads management, and professional division of labor, a relatively high proportion of industry, but there is no may take a more incremental approach, do not do this all the upset over again overnight shock therapy, I think that is possible.
failure of incremental reform, said the Soviet Union was to go this route now, this is inaccurate In 1988 I went to visit the Soviet Union, saw he had a series of reform measures, and China's reforms in the early 1980s are very similar: one is to join the Republic of delegating powers and benefits to all, a portion of investment is transferred to the republic; Another is to expand the autonomy of enterprises, engage in early China, the three funds is similar to the bonus incentive to increase these things, China's industrial reform is taking the dual pricing system, he was also exploring this path, for example, some companies allow overcapacity 5% can get the market price to decide, by supply and demand decisions. This discovery has been made at the initial benefits, not go elsewhere.
dual pricing system reform is actually a great benefit to China, because the market prices at the margin works, adjust the supply and demand, adjust the allocation of resources. If all of canceled the planned price overnight, the entire economic system to a standstill, the key to success in China is to avoid the economic paralysis, and through the reform of the marginal increment the introduction of market mechanisms. Even without that non-state enterprises, a single talk state-owned enterprises, the initial stages when the two-track approach also played an important role in fact.
Yang Yao: Why did the Soviet Union was this the right way to go into what?
Wang Xiaolu: The key is for political reasons .1989 coup, and then Boris Yeltsin came to power, took office announced that Russia independence from the Soviet Union, first of all political disintegration, and fully accept the shock therapy proposed by the West, is actually reversed asymptotic test in front of doctrine.
SW: go on trial is not an accident?
Wang Xiaolu: for political reasons.
SW: shock therapy, first introduced in Poland, Poland's relatively successful reforms Russia also sent a large study mission to Poland.
Yao Yang: I think the reasons are political. Poland, after all, is a unified country, and relatively small size, the state does not split off, and the entire Soviet Union experienced major political turmoil in Poland against the Solidarity trade union and the government so long, when the transition is relatively better, the Soviet Union's political turmoil will hurt too much.
I agree with the views of small Lu. Yingyi Qian they All roads managed to write an article called the U-model, called the M-type management departments and regions, and that M-and U-type differences, there is no problem. but if you use this to explain the difference between China and the former Soviet Union, different roads , it seems that the same fate decision, it seems a little too mechanical.
SW: You basically do not agree with the judge mm economic conditions within the different decisions they can only choose two different paths.
Yang Yao : In fact, the pre-election political reform the Soviet Union, Gorbachev apparently are inseparable, I think that it is because they lack the political capacity of Gorbachev results.
Wang Xiaolu: Looking back China, the political wisdom of the older generation of politicians is the not the.
SW: So the initial conditions have to be coupled with a highly executive mm capacity of our political leaders, when the selected target, know what works best better to achieve the target?
Yao Yang: Yes. I have read memoirs written by Americans, there is a section on Mikhail Gorbachev, in his anxious Party congress, . can not be successful? Gorbachev that the resistance from the bureaucracy, his first bureaucratic system that need to settle, that is, the resistance through the elimination of political reform, the results met with greater resistance, so that put all things all messed up.
Yao Yang: I think it can accept such explanations. This shows that Gorbachev did not have enough political wisdom, he does not know how to resolve the political resistance, China's reform and opening up our political resistance within the party also Great.
1978, the thousands of miles when the Anhui Provincial CPC Committee, Wang Yuzhao engage in Chuxian peasants, the central leadership in charge of agriculture know to call thousands of miles, requiring thousands of miles to stop, thousands of miles back to find Deng Xiaoping, Deng Xiaoping said you can try when resistance is not small.
Wang Xiaolu: there is still a debate, I saw the report, the old Du (Du Runsheng) about, say, a veteran agricultural population that contrary to socialist principles household production contract package, can not promote, Miles said it was the request of the people, people just want enough to eat it. and then talk about production contract package who retired households not taking the socialist path of prosperity, contrary to the basic socialist orientation. Miles of socialism and the people you say To what? the former say I want to socialism, Miles said, I want the people.
whether in China or the Soviet Union, the resistance is not small, the key is how to get down.
SW: A About 30 years ago Reform of the argument is that the situation in China was bad to not get any worse, and Deng Xiaoping's decision, it seems a particularly natural choice, try to change at any point will have a positive effect. from your experiences and feelings, in fact, did not Then the inevitable, but the choice was very difficult, are not you?
Wang Xiaolu: Yes. In fact, when the reform started much debate, can make a production contract pack customers, can the development of township enterprises, private enterprises are not allowed to allow the existence of prices can not let go, to what extent a series of open debate hh, then go step by step, so long a walk, a.
keep up the Soviet Union than I think there is a critical difference. China's leadership was people chose to cross the river by feeling the stones, through the exploration and accumulation of experience, and gradually solve the problems between the reform, and gradually transition over to the system. This philosophy is the practice of reform first. because the system from a planned to a market system , no country in the world with experience, the experience is neither ready nor ready-made theories mm economic theory are a summary of the market economy, prices play a role in how, how changes in supply and demand, these things are already in the market economy exists, then economists to conclude the market is how it works. As for how a planned economy to a market economy, who do not know how to turn, what will happen.
life in the planned economy for so many years , we did not have any personal experience about the market economy mm at that time I little knowledge about the market economy is Samuelson's Economics textbook view, read Capital when reading is to jump the queue in the countryside, and look Yugoslavia's a little something mm fact, no one witnessed how the market economy is really going on. Our generation came from the liberation, but it is not a typical market economy, those who stay over ocean, such as Deng Xiaoping, saw market economy, but he does not know how to transition, you ask any Western economists do not have any experience in this area. But the success of the market economy is a fact of human experience proves things. planned economy with market economy defeated in the competition, it is also true. so we know what general direction of reform. But how to go, or to rely on exploration.
economics textbook alone, took a ready-made according to the theoretical model The following sets can not solve the problem, the reform of a series of complex social problems, economic problems from the textbooks do not find ready-made answers. In this case, only one step to cross the river by feeling the stones, and now look back on this The logic of reform is the only kind of valid.
SW: Is it because people go in front, there are lessons we can see, so China has insisted gradualism?
Wang Xiaolu: Actually, we are certain reforms in the 1990s acceleration, select the progressive is to be laid down in the line of the 1980s.
progressive because the first you can not see the second you see some of the measures will have serious effects. For example, dual pricing system, then we World Bank economists discussed the issue, they said it must be wrong, the coexistence of two different price systems, two different sets of signals will cause confusion in the economy, the final results will lead to economic collapse.
I remember that we have no more arguments with their theoretical basis. But the fact is, for example, steel prices was 600 yuan a ton, the market price of 2,000 yuan a ton, a large number of enterprises in China as the raw material of steel, assuming overnight Cancel plans steel price, steel prices will surge, iron and steel enterprises are making, but the cost of other companies will die a sudden mm high several times, but the prices do not rise up. What does this mean? China can not afford a sudden between the number of corporate bankruptcies, tens of millions of workers lost their jobs? What can raise their short-term? can not afford. If the same downstream product prices also rose up, still not a good thing, because people can not afford. This is the reality that we faced at the time. Because can not afford the consequences, you can only accept the progressive reform, you can sell some overcapacity 2,000 a ton, or less than the original plan by 600 yuan a ton of sales.
course, this also generated a lot of problems the middle. back too far, it was able to pipe a little more tightly, reducing the middle of the rent-seeking behavior, to prevent profiteering openly Yuli? can not do a little more transparent, more orderly point? perfectly! but can not deny the role of two-track system. < br> overnight price liberalization in China is not enough, in the case of the Soviet Union was the same way, and he may bring the issue is more complicated, because, according to many economists to say when he plans a thorough than that of China, distorting the allocation of resources serious than that of China, price reform overnight, the possible adverse impact will be severe than China. These cases in China, we can see why they can not see? can not because you go down this path, I must say so go, there is no other choice. It does not make sense. You have to see him practice what is brought.
shock therapy, in fact, no theory. If the theoretical model, only one sentence, that is not a two-hop over a ditch, only a step jump. But China is also a ditch in the past, we divided the number of jump past!
Yao Yang: You can ride slowly walked over a bridge.
Wang Xiaolu: in fact the Soviet Union was leading reform group, the impact on the community, to disregard the negative impact of the people, do not take into account.
Yang Yao: Chubais was the American economic advisers wrote a book Why did engage in that type of reform, the big bang is completely political needs. Chubais to Yeltsin at ideas that make the political basis of the original system, crushed, the original system, which benefit the people cut off from the economic, Let the people happy with the privatization. He said that privatization would create a number of support once the regime who are now so many people will support us.
This is a political consideration, not an economic consideration. Yeltsin because of the political need to do so.
was a clear statement that we go to create a fait accompli as soon as possible to the original regime will never come back, the sooner the better, at the artificially created through the privatization of a number of oligarchs, who mastered these economic lifeline.
SW: China's reform and the internal logic is right, because human society does not have the same experience, so we should take a step to see?
Yao Yang: Yes. This philosophy is not only a reference to the transition role, in fact, many other countries, including developing and developed countries, has value, everything you do may have been to hold such a pragmatic attitude. pragmatism easy to be misunderstood the word, I call it pragmatic doctrine. American philosophy is the philosophy of pragmatism.
have to do things step by step, we have to accept the so-called second-best arrangement, each time with a little improvement can be done after a good ten years. Many the same problems faced by developing countries to achieve the optimal state is unlikely. For example, the problem of corruption, we all hate corruption, but corruption, an efficient government not too difficult, Hong Kong, Singapore is very rare in other places The government has corruption, a different extent.
another country has come to us, and usually not the same sense of pragmatism is that we have a place to practice, practice with pragmatism, practice pragmatism, we not to say that the world has changed we have to follow the change, we have a practice of the process, continue to test, allowing you to make mistakes, you can do wrong, wrong and we changed.
Wang Xiaolu: At that time many people began to In considering the planned economy and market economy, different, a lot of theoretical discussion was not released, saying publicly that a market economy can not be good, but you can say that the commodity economy is good, that is the market economy, in fact, understand that the knowledge that belly Ming.
Why the market economy is good, in fact, this theory is not good because the market economy, not to say that this theory did not solve the problems of others. We think that the market economy is good, because modern humans, modern historical experience proved successful market economy, non-market economy is not so successful experience, socialist countries started looking planned economy to be successful, then more clearly not the end, we feel that there is no way out, and must be changed. how they change? ready History tells us that the world already on the successful model of a market economy, this thing is actually a practical thing, not a theory it looks better on the choice of a market economy, not the truth.
reform of the then Soviet Union I think that is the pattern first. I pay more attention to the practice first. practice tells me something, and logic tells me something which I believe more in the end, this is the first.
Second, economic theory stresses Pareto optimal, Pareto improvement, what is a Pareto improvement? through the reallocation of resources, at least some people better, but no one is worse, at least some people benefit, but no damage. < br> a reallocation of resources, some people benefit from the damage to the others, it is hard to judge this is not good, this is not Pareto optimal. If a few people benefit most damage, it is not only not a Pareto improvement, but social deteriorated. Russia is a direct result of the reform to benefit the majority minority damaged.
Putin, the Russian people why so welcomed by Putin came to power
why so popular? people hate oligarchy of those who died, why did you become a billionaire overnight, and eventually control the global .1990 to 1998 Russia's GDP fell by 57%, the cumulative inflation rate is 2000 times ten. In addition to World War II, what a disaster has not this big.
Putin of Russia to stabilize, he was disgusted with the West since taking office, but the West have a strategic vision, the people will thank him, or Russia may be in turmoil, will be a very destabilizing factor.
SW: not the same with China, most of China's rich accumulation of wealth through a long process of the birth of Russia's oligarchs overnight.
Wang Xiaolu: Yes. is by luck, by the relationship, by an internal person, cut Horno Merkin year the All-Union state-owned natural gas company's chairman, became prime minister. gas companies privatized, licensed to own, to get all the hands of Russian gas are, why all the property of the Russian people have changed into a person you had?
1992 completely abandon the planned price in Russia, a market price overnight, overnight, privatization, price level for the year soared 16 times, from 1992 to 1994 is about 600 times, the people how to live? business sold, the design of the program seems very fair, to give you what card is worth ten million rubles, take this card to buy shares in enterprises, but also engaged in shock therapy the price reform overnight, ten thousand rubles to buy a pair of leather shoes is gone, this card becomes the year with nothing. while a few savvy people the hands of the merchants began to purchase warrants cheap, concentrated in the hands of one person put the business to buy down. But he did not understand the business before, he only know from the people who look for opportunities to get rich, overnight became a business owner, and then further reform, the price the big oil companies refuse to sell with others, a flash of between the monopoly, came out.
Yang Yao: seemingly unfair means, the results become a serious injustice. These unscrupulous oligarchs play later, When the condemned into the game playing field.
SW: This is so dirty!
Yao Yang: Putin came to power why so popular? people hate those people, so how can you become a billionaire overnight Finally, the overall situation into control. now that the former richest man in prison, called the vote in parliament, Mr said that his request to vote according to the condition from the $ 300,000 added to the 50 million, 80 million U.S. dollars, they do not accept the , told him not to go out to vote you will be killed, and now you money or your life? to this situation is not arrested him, this country is not a country, and by these oligarchs control. on his disposal, the West is very large overall bias.
Wang Xiaolu: some people by saying the West, Putin came to power against the oligarchs, a step backwards, back the market economy, to return to government intervention, the retreat of state capitalism.
Yao Yang: I would think this is a U.S. conspiracy mm oligarchy if Russia becomes a country, is clearly very beneficial for the United States, he did not want Russia to see a normal, if this country become like Latin America Like much easier to control, while the oligarchs of the more Western support.
I saw an Australian economist, wrote, Putin did the right thing. the West has seen Russia insight dangerous, could become fascist society, but also could become the same as Latin America, compared with a sense of justice of the West is aware of Russia that the country is going down again.
Wang Xiaolu: If Boris Yeltsin came to power counting, 1990 to 1998 Russia's GDP fell by 57%, almost half did not, the cumulative inflation rate is ten thousand times. In addition to World War II, what did not this big disaster, most people's living standards have declined.
the general population decreased levels of nutrition, infant mortality rose. There are some people out of work had to freeze to death in the street, it is probably an alcoholic. The average life expectancy is falling so.
Yao Yang: I believe, another 10 or 20 years, sure some people back long-term impact evaluation of the Russian transition. that time is definitely better than a child born during the birth of the child's physical difference, as we have three children born during the same famine.
Putin came to power Westerners are disgusted, but he did do good things, making Russia stabilized, the resources could have been people coming back from the hands of oligarchs, and perhaps the outside right, he has accumulated a fortune, but he is after all for the people back to the resource.
course, he met a good time, the oil prices up, but if not him, all the benefits of price increases to the oligarchs, then we can imagine, is certainly now the guy in prison When the president, his billions of dollars of wealth, would like to be doing what mm you can get this thing to buy votes, you can buy anyone's life. If the control is such a person, Russia will become what? I think the West strategic vision, the people will thank Putin, Russia may be chaos otherwise, will be a very destabilizing factor.
SW: So, this generation of radical reform is in fact not the Russian people's own choice?
Wang Xiaolu: No completely controlled by the minority. Yeltsin shooting itself in the foot, he made oligarchs, and later found himself being anti-oligarchic control, and then later begged oligarchs support him when the last elections mm, if not involved in oligopoly He did not be elected, and finally let him through the oligarchs to borrow money.
1990's, I have a degree in Australian universities, and a .90 Ukrainian students share an office late, I visited the United Nations University to learn , and Russia, often to a visiting scholar with the drink, they talk about what happened to the former Soviet Union endless hate.
where the value of China's road
markets and democracy is not the ultimate goal? ultimate goal should be to Let the people get benefits, improved to develop opportunities for people throughout the country today than yesterday and tomorrow better than today, this should be the supreme goal.
China's reform and to come today, a very important factor in neglected, that is, the Chinese government is neutral government, the so-called neutral government, is the Government's policy choices and interests of the majority consensus approach, rather than tend to a specific interest group. It is unique in developing countries.
risk the future of China, the first stop of growth, the second is even more unfair society, one is efficiency, and one is on fairness. has become a Latin American, or become the Republic of the back Republic of the danger of bureaucratic capitalism.
Yang Yao: what happened in Russia and Eastern Europe, decision-makers in China have great touch. they get the information both on the one hand to do practical things to the people, there must be economic growth, if Without economic growth, social unrest will; the second is to speed up the reform, I think that speed up the reform in the 1990s with the Soviet Union and the changes may still have relations, related to but not the other way, is that reform of the Soviet Union and Eastern, we need to speed up .
our relentless pursuit of reform in the 1990s, many of them in the 1980s to make some adjustments on the edge, largely based rural reform.
Wang Xiaolu: But in the 1990s when the state-owned enterprise reform, according to the proportion term non-state enterprises have been more than state-owned enterprises. I through the 1980s reforms, has become a growing non-state sector, although market adjustment state-owned enterprises, but his performance as non-state enterprises, and develop than non-state slow the development of enterprises, resulting in the proportion of non-state enterprises account for a growing, so the long-term poor management of state-owned enterprise into a burden, so that by 90 years, some enterprises simply have to sell such calculations.
Yang Yao : In the beginning there is a plan to reform state-owned enterprises, in 1984, this issue Moganshan session, but then this thing down, and not to say that change. China this transition, not much in terms of system by leaps and bounds, but our way is unique way, is valuable.
SW: Where is the best value?
Yao Yang: We go this way is valuable, not only for the Chinese themselves valuable for the world is valuable. in the domestic scholars critical of the government too much, I'm not saying that criticism does not, but one-sided criticism that foreign perceptions of China are biased. be friendly to Western scholars often say that China is a miracle But China is not how he came to ask, you have to say what China over the past 30 years, things go right, otherwise we can not go so well. The key is we do not have a very good summary of how to go on, and most of criticism, but also in foreign countries is basically well-known criticism of the Chinese people in China.
Wang Xiaolu: easy to criticize the Chinese famous.
Yao Yang: China Communist Party of China, after all, developed under the system, not Taiwan South Korea did in the Cold War, when given the opportunity to develop. China is a developing country as an authoritarian regime developed, Western society in China are very alert and afraid of China to the West to this model, he has become authoritarian by. Here are biased.
Summing up from the front over the past 30 years, we have not done too, and too little, Lin teachers have done in this area is relatively good, but he basically said that a comparative advantage ...