Concern this week, the RMB exchange rate movements. According to the China Foreign Exchange Trade data released yesterday showed that the interbank foreign exchange market the same day the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar was 6.5896, again a new high after the foreign exchange reform. And since Tuesday, since the yuan central parity rate against the U.S. dollar has raised the fourth consecutive day, the cumulative rise of 453 basis points, and since Wednesday after the reform of foreign exchange earnings for the third day a new high. Beginning of this year, the RMB exchange rate has been steadily rising what is the reason behind? Accelerate the appreciation of what to think? A stock appreciation is not good? This week we focus on the RMB exchange rate.
two incentive appreciation
years ago, part of the shares is expected to soar! Confidential! Market institutions will soon be reversed capital flows have changed dramatically! Main funding is plotting a new layout
What prompted this week to accelerate the appreciation of RMB?
issues.
Although the reasons for the accelerated appreciation of a lot of discussion, but the market generally tend to control imported inflation. Institute of Finance, the State Council Development Research Center, deputy director of Ba to the view that the comments from many domestic and international perspective, more and more concern that the short-term General Secretary Hu Jintao visited the United States increased exchange rate flexibility may be a sensitive window, but the actual , this is a short-term event. Economic dimensions of the situation from the point of view, the most important thing is China's economic fundamentals, particularly for the management of imported inflation and inflation expectations, the need for suppression. Because we see that the international prices of raw materials, oil, iron ore prices rose significantly, oil prices exceeded 90 dollars, the price of iron ore in China in 2010 rose by almost 60% of the whole, it increased the exchange rate through active the flexibility of volatility, help contain imported inflation.
The steps to temporary events will speed up, and then on to a new level, two-way volatility for some time; then affected by the new events, to a new level.
So, how much space this year, RMB appreciation? Such as Wang Tao, chief economist at UBS Securities also believes that the yuan will appreciate in 2011 by 6%, year-end 2011 exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar will reach 6.2. HSBC economist Qu Hongbin, chief China believes that the yuan will continue, slowly against the dollar, but the rate of appreciation will be very slow appreciation of the renminbi in 2011 within the range of 3% to 5%.
Appreciation is a trend or how much remains to be seen in various aspects, such as the U.S. dollar, foreign trade, as well as inflation data. China International Capital Corporation, believes that the appreciation in the fight against inflation and interest rates the focus is different. Interest rate increase is mainly suppressed domestic demand, appreciation of the renminbi is mainly to reduce the import prices of raw materials. Recent PPI and non-food consumer goods rise year on year to re-display imported inflation pressures, so the intensity of RMB appreciation should also be increased from the previous month. Of gold that the 1-February interest rate hike less likely, the price for some time the central bank may be more dependent on the exchange rate tool means to prevent imported inflation.
as many of the major consumer of commodities, price stability in the international situation, to increase the purchasing power through the appreciation seems to be regarded a cure.
apparently did not play a very good inhibitory effect. From June last year, the RMB exchange reform since the sharp appreciation has already begun, it is almost the same time began to increase domestic inflation, CPI began to surge in the appreciation of RMB has proven to ease inflation is not obvious.
Appreciation of the short term may inhibit the expected imported inflation, but the unemployment rate will also increase exports to slow down. This was referred to the appreciation of which is conducive to promote China's economic restructuring is conducive to industrial upgrading, help to overcome the excessive dependence on low-end export industries to promote economic development situation, but if you have not had time to turn to wrong?
Futures Research Manager South Certificate Chen Zhong also told reporters that both interest rates and the appreciation of the means of inhibition of imported inflation, but the appreciation of the more complex appreciation of the need to see speed, imports and demand elasticity size, if the rise is less than the rate of formation of the elasticity of demand for imports will be negative.
Simple view, the benefits of appreciation is obvious. The one hand, partial remission of international trade imbalances, on the other hand appreciation of the mean lower prices of raw materials, can ease the pressure of imported inflation, monetary policy adjustments to increase the buffer space; but negative point of view, appreciation of the export enterprises will considerable pressure, especially significant appreciation of the price advantage of exports will decrease or disappear, which can cause fluctuations in exports. From China's standpoint, a substantial increase in imports to balance trade surplus is the government most wants to see a 'rebalancing of trade' model. However, hot money inflows or outflows, is subject to foreign capital markets and risk appetite of overseas more difficult to measure. Because the appreciation of China's capital markets will enhance the attractiveness to international capital. Although the international capital to enter the A-share market by the QFII quota restrictions, but A shares and H shares by the linkage to influence the market.
From the industry perspective, the benefit from the appreciation of the plate mainly from three aspects: First, import costs decline, such as iron ore, crude oil, paper pulp, various equipment, etc.; the second , foreign currency exchange gains, holding foreign debt of enterprises will benefit from reducing the amount of actual reimbursement, such as debt held by more airlines; Third, the appreciation of the RMB assets, holding the RMB Asset Management's corporate wealth effects are more obvious, such as real estate, banking, foreign investment these companies will be sought after. In addition, the RMB appreciation, some of the export industry will also suffer losses, such as textiles, automobiles, machinery, household appliances and so on.
GF Securities, according to property from the industry point of view, exchange gain or loss of business perspective and point of empirical analysis in three areas that the RMB appreciation will make aviation, commerce and trade, paper and utilities benefit from it.
but is interesting, although the most benefit from the appreciation of Renminbi, the performance of airline stocks is not satisfactory. This week air transport sector (SW industry) is down 1.7%, Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.67% over the same period, which fell 1.65% China Southern Airlines, China Eastern fell 2.06%, Air China was down 0.84%.
Note With the gradual opening of high-speed rail network, air by high-speed rail will be increasingly fierce competition, high-speed rail traffic diversion will gradually appear in the future. There are two sessions held in various parts of the case, the focus of future work of the government, the GDP target set at what? Focus on the piece of investment? This number will be about market sentiment, and now the market is not bad money, the key is confidence.
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